First things first – my next car will either be all electric (EV) or at least a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). There are several reasons I support electric cars, the most significant of which is that electric cars utilize resources we have a surplus of (especially natural gas) in lieu of something we have a shortage of (oil). As a matter of national security, it behooves us to use less of the stuff that we don’t control and more of the stuff that we do. The overall efficiency of electric cars is greater than internal combustion cars as well, even assuming the power came from natural gas or coal. Burning of natural gas entails lower levels of CO2, SO2, NOx, and particulates. Also, as natural gas is replaced by cleaner forms of energy, EV’s themselves will become even cleaner.
National security, thermodynamic efficiency, less pollution – all them things are pretty sweet.
The big question that I’m surprised doesn’t come up in this conversation is in regard to how quickly electric vehicles will put a dent in our oil consumption. The argument is that because Teslas have gone from novelties to curiosities to being commonplace, we can now shut down drilling for oil because here in a few minutes we won’t need any anymore.
The US currently consumes 20 million barrels per day, about 60% of which is produced in the US. Wouldn’t it be nice if EVs and PHEVs reduced our consumption such that we would no longer need to import oil to run our economy?
Let’s do some math and see how much of a dent in our consumption EV’s will make after 10 years.
First, the most critical question of all: How many EVs and PHEVs will hit the road in the next decade? The EV advocacy group www.EVadoption.com estimates total sales in the US to be about 7 million per year by 2033 (about 40% of total car sales). Based on the current number of EVs & PHEVs on the road, this pace of sales leads to a total of about 40 million vehicles on US roads by 2033.
Assumptions:
- EV’s on the road in the US by 2033: 40 million (half EV, half PHEV)
- Every new electric car displaces a gasoline car that would otherwise get 20 mpg • Each EV avoids 12,000 miles per year worth of gasoline consumption
- Each PHEV avoids 8,000 miles per year worth of gasoline consumption
- 1 barrel of gasoline avoided equals 1 barrel of oil avoided (I know this isn’t right, but work with me)
- EVs get charged at night when there is plenty of spare grid capacity (I know this isn’t right, but work with me)
- We start producing all of our own lithium domestically instead of importing it from Australia and Chile, dang it (I know this won’t happen, but work with me)
Based on these assumptions, I am coming up with avoided oil consumption of about 1.4 million barrels by 2033. This would be a 7% reduction in the US’ overall consumption compared to current levels. In the next decade. If all we did during that time was drill enough just keep our oil production flat at 12 million barrels per day, our oil imports would go from 40% to 35.5%.
What is the limitation on building more EV’s? Lithium. We are happy to demand more lithium from countries that don’t do things like 5-year long Environmental Impact Statements like we do. Those of you who want to get off of oil should be demanding that the current administration open up more mines domestically and fast-track permitting processes. Let’s mine it here – The various wars that will be taking place around the world between now and 2033 will greatly jeopardize that 7% reduction in oil consumption if we don’t start producing it here.
A few over-arching arguments / conclusions:
- EVs and PHEVs are great for reducing our reliance on foreign oil and our economy’s exposure to swings in oil prices
- We are trending towards 7% reduction in oil consumption in the next 10 years 3. Just because someone in your neighborhood drives a Tesla doesn’t mean we are done with oil. 4. A Tesla probably runs on natural gas, depending on when and where it plugs in 5. More lithium = less oil. What do we want? More mining! When do we want it? Now! Where do we want it? ‘Murrica!
- If you don’t like EVs, get a PHEV – no range anxiety and you still get your towing capacity
One bonus conclusion: If you want to stick it to the oil companies, EVs are not your answer. Just consume less.
Is my math right? Probably not. Put a 100% error band around my numbers and optimistically assume that this reduction is 14% instead of 7%. The conclusion is the same. We aren’t racing down a double black diamond slope towards the end of oil with Kenny Loggins music in the background. We are nervously sliding down the bunny slope while wearing fuzzy ear-muffs with Cocomelon music in the background.
Where do I see myself in 10 years? Driving an EV, demanding more lithium mining, and working hard to help the natural gas industry produce energy more responsibly.
Go Team.
Going back to PHEVs, there are multiple advantages over EVs. These cars have both batteries / motors and gasoline engines. No range anxiety and you still get your towing capacity. Their batteries are about 1/5th the size of most full electrics, giving them an electric range of 20-40 miles before they switch to gasoline. For most people (not all) this would cover a significant portion of their daily commute. Because the batteries are smaller, they can be charged at home with a standard 120V wall charger in 8 hours – great for plugging in at night to use the next day with no expensive charging equipment. The environmental impact of all the lithium mining is greatly reduced. These are the gateway drug to going full electric. Most of these vehicles cost $6,000 to $9,000 more than their gasoline-only counterparts. Because they are charged at night using off-peak electricity, the cost per mile to operate tends to be 10- 25% of the cost of gasoline. For me, the payback period would be 6 years, with a 12% rate of return over a 12-year period.
